Using current technology and known resources, we can provide energy security well into the 22nd century with:
- photovoltaic (PV) solar
- wind
- other renewable sources as locally available
- lithium-ion battery storage
- other storage sources as locally available
- nuclear fission (initially uranium, then thorium) with fuel recycling and breeding
- a similar grid system (improved, including more robust cross-regional and cross-continental (e.g., underseas) connections)
- surplus energy for creating mobile energy such as hydrogen or more convenient alternatives
- fossil fuels available as back-up, for use with new carbon-mitigation technologies, or for activities, such as long-distance air travel, that currently are not well suited for electric engines or alternative fuels, and
- potentially nuclear fusion in the longer-term
This path can provide energy that well exceeds our currently available energy, allowing us to enjoy energy-intensive benefits such as expanded clean water through desalination plants, expansion of electricity across the globe (like rural electrification in the US in the early 20th century), faster construction and manufacturing with electric robotic machinery, more food production with electric robotic tractors and artificially-lit vertical farms, greater artificial intelligence through more data centers, providing energy to new communities away from the equators if climate change continues, and local travel through commuter electric planes, just to name a few possibilities.[i] While this path dramatically reduces, and potentially fully offsets, carbon emissions, it should (and can) also include comprehensive recycling processes to protect our environment. Finally, this is by no means the only viable path. Human ingenuity will undoubtedly develop additional technologies. But this path provides a viable approach using existing technology and known resources as a baseline option for energy security well into the 22nd century.
PV Solar
PV solar relies on the photoelectric effect, where solar radiation that exceeds a specific energy level dislodges an electron from an atom (with the excess energy creating heat), and where the pure silicon of PV solar cells is chemically doped to create regions of free electrons and regions of electron holes (atoms with a missing electron) to guide electrons in the electron region to conductors at the junction with the attracting electron hole region and then to the electric grid, with present efficiencies of transforming around 20% of the received solar energy into electricity.[ii] If PV solar electricity was reliably available at all times, estimates are that somewhere around 0.3-0.4 percent of the world’s land would be needed to produce all of the world’s early 21st century electricity, the size of Arizona or, if limited to the US’ electricity needs, the size of Lake Michigan.[iii] Since sunshine is only available during the day and is intermittent when cloudy, PV solar needs to be paired with other sources of electricity to provide reliable supplies. Lithium-ion batteries, nuclear fission, cross-regional transmission lines, and fossil fuel plants are some of the viable options to complement PV solar. Crystalline silicon PV panels, the most common type, rely on abundant materials such as quartz, glass, steel, aluminum, and copper, with copper emerging as a replacement for silver for grids and cell pads.[iv] PV solar can be installed on rooftops or in large arrays, such as in empty deserts.[v] Solar PV panels last around 30 years and 3 million tons per year of retired panels are forecasted through 2050, but fortunately the various components are recyclable.[vi]
Wind
Modern wind-created electricity primarily uses turbines that have blades shaped like airplane wings to use the difference in pressure above and below each blade to turn a horizontal shaft that turns, often with gearing to increase the speed of rotations, a generating turbine.[vii] Generating turbines use the physical movement of spinning wires in between magnets to generate current using electromagnetism, often with temporary magnets created by wrapping wires around metal again using electromagnetism.[viii] If wind-created electricity was reliably available at all times, estimates are that a space the size of Mexico would be needed to supply the world’s present electricity needs, although the land underneath and between the turbines could still be used for other uses.[ix] Since wind is intermittent, wind-created electricity needs to be paired with other sources of electricity to provide reliable supplies. Like solar, lithium-ion batteries, nuclear fission, cross-regional transmission lines, and fossil fuel plants are some of the viable options to complement wind-created energy. Wind turbines use widely available materials already commonly used for other major construction projects: aluminum and steel for the tower, fiberglass or carbon fiber for the blades, as well as steel and concrete for the foundation.[x] The most productive winds are often found offshore or in or near mountain ranges.[xi] Wind turbines last around 30 years, requiring earlier maintenance of electronics and internal gearing, and the various components are recyclable similar to the materials of other major constructions projects.[xii]
Other Renewable Sources
Other renewable sources may be locally available, including hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal, and marine power.[xiii]
Lithium-Ion Battery Storage
Lithium-ion batteries can store electricity from PV solar or electric generators for later use. Lithium-ion batteries chemically store and discharge electricity by moving positively charged lithium ions back and forth through an electrolyte and simultaneously moving electrons back and forth in the opposite direction through a conductor.[xiv] They do this with a negatively charged anode, often graphite on a copper foil, a positively charged cathode, often lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, or lithium nickel oxide on an aluminum foil, an electrolyte, currently liquid lithium salts, and a separator, generally plastic like polyolefin.[xv] When the battery is charged by adding outside electricity, the electrons in the lithium iron phosphate/cobalt oxide/nickel oxide are attracted by the higher external positive voltage to leave the cathode, causing positive lithium ions to dissolve into the lithium salt electrolyte and leaving iron phosphate/cobalt oxide/nickel oxide on the cathode, and the electrons move through the aluminum and copper conductors to the graphite anode attracting the newly freed positive lithium ions in the lithium salt electrolyte to the anode through the plastic separator (which prevents the electrons from moving through the electrolyte) and forming lithiated graphite on the anode.[xvi] The release of electricity occurs in reverse with the opening of an external positive circuit attracting electrons from the lithiated graphite in the anode through the circuit and then to the iron phosphate/cobalt oxide/nickel oxide in the cathode, simultaneously attracting the lithium ions from the now positive lithiated graphite to the now negative iron phosphate/cobalt oxide/nickel oxide through the electrolyte.[xvii] Estimates are that approximately 1000 square feet are needed to store 1 megawatt hour of electric capacity in lithium-ion batteries, so a space approximately two thirds the size of Rhode Island could store the world’s present electricity needs and this space could be at least partially included in the empty spaces within solar or wind installations, although greater space would be needed if clusters of batteries are spaced apart for battery-fire management.[xviii] Lithium-ion batteries can store the electricity from intermittent renewable sources, like solar and wind, and provide the electricity when needed such as at night, during cloudy days, or during still days with the ability to extend the duration of the supply to many hours or several days by adding more batteries.[xix] Lithium-ion batteries rely on lithium, iron phosphate or cobalt/nickel, aluminum, and copper, with aluminum, iron phosphate, and copper being widely available and lithium and cobalt/nickel (which can be replaced by iron phosphate) currently being less available.[xx] Global lithium reserves on land are currently estimated at 115 million tons (400+ times the current annual global production of 240,000 tons) and the ocean has hundreds of billions of tons of lithium.[xxi] Lithium cobalt and nickel batteries lose approximately 20% of their capacity after 1000 cycles (3 years if cycled daily), while lithium iron phosphate batteries can last several times longer, and all of these types can be recycled.[xxii] Lithium cobalt and nickel batteries have about 40% more energy per weight than lithium iron phosphate batteries, but also produce oxygen that can fuel fires from short circuits while the lithium phosphate batteries do not produce that oxygen and are safer.[xxiii] However, even the lithium phosphate batteries can create fires at high temperatures or if they short circuit, and grid level battery installations magnify the consequences of the initially isolated fires since adjacent batteries can also catch fire, so safer alternatives include locating the battery systems away from people or environmentally sensitive areas, creating spaces between clusters of batteries to minimize the scope of fires, and continuing the research on less flammable battery electrolytes.[xxiv]
Other Storage Sources
Other storage sources may be locally available, including pumped water storage, flow and air batteries (iron flow and iron air batteries with widely available materials and multi-day charge durations are currently just being tested in deployments[xxv]), compressed air storage, hydrogen, flywheels, molten salt, and capacitors.[xxvi]
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear fission power uses the fission of uranium, plutonium, or thorium atoms to heat water or other liquids to create steam to power a turbine for electric generation.[xxvii] Certain isotopes of uranium and plutonium are naturally radioactive and emit neutrons that can split other uranium, plutonium, or thorium atoms, creating a controlled chain fission reaction.[xxviii] Nuclear fission plants can be designed to recycle and create new nuclear fuel.[xxix] One option to reduce concerns about proliferation of fissile materials during recycling is to have a trusted military or other government-sponsored organization manage the recycling, which can be expanded to offering to recycle the spent fuel and provide safe reactor-grade fuel to other countries.[xxx] If spent fuel is not recycled, it needs to be carefully stored, with current spent fuel being initially stored in water pools next to the reactors and later in (often underground) storage facilities.[xxxi] If plant designers choose to use new fuel instead of recycled fuel, current estimates are that 100+ years of uranium and at least 400+ years of thorium are economically available.[xxxii] Estimates are that a space the size of Delaware would be needed to supply the world’s present electricity needs entirely with nuclear fission power, with a smaller footprint if nuclear fission power is used as baseline power to complement intermittent renewable sources like PV solar and wind.[xxxiii] Nuclear fission plants are designed to last 40 to 60 years.[xxxiv]
Grid System
Transmission lines transport electricity from generation sources to customers. The lines are generally aluminum wrapped around a steel core for reinforcement.[xxxv] Overhead lines generally use steel towers or poles, underground lines are generally placed inside of protective fluid filled or polyethylene pipes, and underwater lines generally add more outer protection layers such as polypropylene and bitumen.[xxxvi] High voltage transmission lines allow electricity from remote sources to reach customers, with electricity losses for those lines generally around 3.5% per 1000 kilometers.[xxxvii] The longest present transmission lines are over 2,300 kilometers long and there are proposals to build a worldwide interconnected grid, including underseas inter-continental transmission lines.[xxxviii] Transmission lines allow electricity to flow from areas that have renewable resources, such as solar or wind, to population centers and similarly could allow, if the lines were long enough, customers at night to access electricity being generated during the day in interconnected regions.[xxxix] Transmission lines last around 50 (underground) to 80 (overhead) years, are made of widely available aluminum and steel, and are recyclable.[xl]
Mobile Fuel from Excess Electricity
With intermittent sources like PV solar and wind, electricity supplies can sometimes exceed demand. Electric grids require a balance of supply and demand, so excess supply is prevented from entering the grid.[xli] If other storage facilities are unavailable to absorb the excess electricity, an option is use the excess to produce mobile fuels, such as hydrogen or other fuels, at the PV solar or wind power site.[xlii] Hydrogen requires approximately three times more storage than gasoline, so research is underway to identify other low carbon fuels that can be manufactured from excess electricity.[xliii]
Fossil Fuels as Backup or for Activities Not Well Suited for Electric Engines
Fossil fuels will be available for a significant time period as back-up supplies, for use with new carbon-mitigation technologies, or for activities, such as long-distance air travel, that currently are not well suited for electric engines or alternative fuels. While estimates are continuously changing, the current estimates are that proven worldwide reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal would last approximately 50, 50, and 145 years, respectively, assuming present consumption levels.[xliv]
Nuclear Fusion
Current nuclear fusion technology involves the fusion of a deuterium and a tritium atom, two isotopes of hydrogen, in temperatures of 100 million degrees Celsius similar to the core of the sun, to create helium, a neutron, and energy that is four times higher than the energy released by nuclear fission.[xlv] Nuclear fusion has far less and much shorter lasting radioactive waste than nuclear fission, uses hydrogen instead of the uranium or plutonium used for nuclear weapons, and the current magnetic tokamak approach uses reactions that end automatically by ending the magnetic field if the reactions become too active.[xlvi] Deuterium is widely available, while tritium is rare on Earth but can be created by using the neutrons from the fusion reaction (or in a fission reactor) to transform lithium-6 into tritium, with lithium-6 being one of the less available lithium isotopes but that can be produced when general lithium ores are mined.[xlvii] There are significant engineering challenges to producing economic commercial power from nuclear fusion, including creating systems that can create and withstand the 100 million degrees Celsius required for the fusion reaction.[xlviii] International coalitions are building experimental fusion reactors, including the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) scheduled to begin fusion reactions in 2034, many (including ITER) using tokamaks which use high electric currents to create high magnetic fields that compress the fuel and create the required temperatures.[xlix]
[i] A Solution to America’s Affordable Housing Crisis, Icon (2025) (Robotic construction 1), Future of Construction: 10 Future of Construction: 10 Future of Construction: 10 Trends and Forecasts You Can’t Miss, Sophie Muradyan (2024) (Robotic construction 2), Construction Industry Trends: The Future of Construction Management, COA Communications (2025) (Robotic construction 3). The source documents for all of the endnotes are at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1C_lvNPkvyTxRZzON_rnxaiYbcdcxb-Eb?usp=sharing.
[ii] Absorption of Light, Pveducation.org (2025) (PV general 2), Theory of Solar Cells, Wikipedia (2025) (PV general 8).
[iii] PV FAQs, US Department of Energy (2004) (PV installation 3), Solar Photovoltaics is Ready to Power a Sustainable Future, Joule (2021) (PV installation 5).
[iv] PV FAQs, US Department of Energy (2004) (PV installation 4).
[v] PV Installation Professional Resource Guide, NABCEP (2013) (PV installation 1); Design, Construction and Typical Case Analysis of Solar PV Generation, Zhou Qui (2022) (PV installation 2).
[vi] End of Life Management: Solar Voltaic Cells, International Energy Agency (2016) (PV recycling 5). As context, total electronic waste in 2024 was approximately 60 million tons. Global E-Waste Monitor 2024, United Nations Institute for Training and Research (2024) (PV recycling 6).
[vii] Wind Turbine, Wikipedia (2025) (Wind turbine general 1), Wind Energy, Center for Sustainable Systems (2024) (Wind turbine general 2), How a Wind Turbine Works, US Department of Energy (2025) (Wind turbine general 3).
[viii] Electric Generators, Open Stax College (2025) (Wind generator 1); Excitation (Magnetic), Wikipedia (2025) (Wind generator 2); What is an Electric Generator, Foro Nuclear (2025) (Wind generator 3).
[ix] How Much Land Does it Take to Power the World, OER Project (2025) (Wind general 1).
[x] Installation of Wind Turbines: Setting Up a Wind Farm, Travis Benn (2024) (Wind installation 1).
[xi] Global Wind Atlas, Energydata.info (2025) (Wind general 2).
[xii] Wind Energy End of Service Guide, US Department of Energy (2025) (Wind turbine recycling 4).
[xiii] The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Energy, Nils Angliviel de La Beaumelle et al (2021) (PV general 7).
[xiv] Lithium-Ion Battery, Wikipedia (2025) (Lithium general 1).
[xv] Lithium general 1, Lithium Iron Phosphate versus Lithium Ion: Differences and Advantages, Anton Beck (2019) (Lithium manufacturing 5).
[xvi] Lithium general 1.
[xvii] Lithium general 1.
[xviii] 7 Misperceptions about the Viability of Utility-Scale Battery Storage, Utility Dive (2022) (Lithium space 1).
[xix] From Minor Player to Major League: Moving Beyond 4-Hour Energy Storage, Justin Daugherty and Madeline Geocaris (2023) (Lithium duration 1).
[xx] Lithium general 1, Lithium manufacturing 5.
[xxi] Lithium, US Geological Survey (2025) (Lithium availability 1), Seawater could Provide Nearly Unlimited Amounts of Critical Battery Material, Robert Service (2020) (Lithium availability 2).
[xxii] Lithium general 1, Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling, US Environmental Protection Agency (2024) (Lithium recycling 1).
[xxiii] Lithium manufacturing 5.
[xxiv] A Comprehensive Review of Solid State Batteries, Anuruddha Joshi, el al (2025) (Lithium manufacturing 8), Challenges for Safe Electrolytes Applied in Lithium-Ion Cells—A Review, Marita Piglowska, et al (2021) (Lithium manufacturing 9).
[xxv] ESS’ Iron Flow Batteries Selected by Indian Energy and the California Energy Commission to Demonstrate Utility-Scale Resilient Microgrids, ESS (2024) (Storage general 2), Form’s First 100-hour Batteries are Hitting the Grid, Maeve Allsup (2025) (Storage general 3).
[xxvi] Energy Storage, Wikipedia (2025) (Storage general 1).
[xxvii] Nuclear Explained: Nuclear Power Plants, US Energy Information Administration (2023) (Nuclear fission general 3).
[xxviii] Physics of Uranium and Nuclear Energy, World Nuclear Association (2025) (Nuclear fission general 2).
[xxix] Fast Neutron Reactors, World Nuclear Association (2021) (Nuclear fission breeder reactor 1).
[xxx] Considerations for Reprocessing of Spent Nuclear Fuel, Mark Holt and Lance Larson (2025) (Nuclear fission fuel cycle 9).
[xxxi] Nuclear Explained: The Nuclear Fuel Cycle, US Energy Information Administration (2023) (Nuclear fission general 4).
[xxxii] Supply of Uranium, World Nuclear Association (2025) (Nuclear fission fuel availability 1), Use of Thorium in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle GIF Experts’ Group (2010) (Nuclear fission fuel availability 2).
[xxxiii] Wind general 1.
[xxxiv] Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, World Nuclear Association (2022) (Nuclear fission design 6).
[xxxv] Transmission System and Components, Aspen Environmental Group (2025) (Grid construction 1).
[xxxvi] Grid construction 1, Underground Electric Transmission Lines, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (2011) (Grid construction 2), Submarine Power Cables, Subsea Cables UK (2025) (Grid construction 3).
[xxxvii] System Efficiency and the New Era of Grid Operations, James Drummond (2024) (Grid general 7).
[xxxviii] The Global Electricity Grid: A Comprehensive Review, Bimal Kumar Dora, et al (2025) (Grid installation 3), Profiling Five of the World’s Longest Power Transmission Lines, Shankar Besta (2019) (Grid general 8), Six Intercontinental Power Links that want to Reshape the World of Energy, Cosmo Sanderson (2024) (Grid installation 7).
[xxxix] Grid installation 3.
[xl] About Transmission: Overhead vs. Underground, Excel Energy (2025) (Grid installation 8), Recycling of Electrical Cables—Current Challenges and Future Prospects, Maciej Wędrychowicz, et al (2023) (Grid recycling 1).
[xli] What is Curtailment?, Ted Kury (2022) (Excess electricity 1).
[xlii] Hydrogen can Help Reduce Global Emissions, Clean Air Task Force (2025) (Excess electricity 2).
[xliii] Hydrogen Storage, US Department of Energy (2025) (Excess electricity 3).
[xliv] World Distribution of Oil, Joseph Riva and Gordon Atwater (2025) (Fossil fuel supply 1), What is the Volume of World Natural Gas Reserves, Energy Information Administration (2021) (Fossil fuel supply 2), Natural Gas, Energy Information Administration (2016) (Fossil fuel supply 3), Why Natural Gas Is Still Thriving In A World Chasing Net Zero, Robert Rapier (2025) (Fossil fuel supply 4), Coal Explained, Energy Information Administration (2023) (Fossil fuel supply 5), Global Coal Consumption, 2000-2025, International Energy Agency (2022) (Fossil fuel supply 6).
[xlv] What is Nuclear Fusion, Internation Atomic Energy Association (2022) (Nuclear fusion general 1).
[xlvi] Fusion Energy, International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (2025) (Nuclear fusion general 3-3c).
[xlvii] Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Fuel, US Department of Energy (2025) (Nuclear fusion materials 1).
[xlviii] Nuclear Fusion Power, World Nuclear Association (2025) (Nuclear fusion general 2).
[xlix] Fusion general 3-3e, Fusion general 3-3g.
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